Thoughts
1. Multi Level of Major Realignment at the National and Global Level.
- Non Linear Process
- Unthinkable Issue
2. History of companies tells us that it is not easy to navigate In this structurual adjustment
3. Understanding of dynamics of work
- investment strategy
- Business side
- Up&Down
What’s in people's mind
1) Volatile and Unsettled situation
2) Interconnected : why do we have to worry about Greece?
3) Ups and Down : Developed world down. Emerging Market up. Why?
4) Political issue
= > These items are not Cyclical change but Structural Change
PIMCO's Thought
1. People are easy to understand and agree with micro level agenda. All major issues such as government debt. Trade, FX, political issue
!But it is very hard to predict and agree when put it together!
2. Develeraging Process
3. Employement Dynamics
4. Political Issue
- Economically Desirable but Politically not feasible
- Politically feasible but Economically not Deriable.
5. Structural Change and Repect the Structural Change
= > This is very important, hard to attact
Inherent friction and tension made us to face the different configuration of risk!
Because of this, you can enjoying exciting opportunities for return.
Finding the next interesting time in career. People go back to principle.
SUMMARY
1. We are in a bumpy jourcey to new world,
- What will be a new equilibrium
- Policy outcome is disappointed.
- We are Navigating different world
Instead of living in a Bell Curb, where you have dominant mean with very flat tail, flatter distribution with fatter tail.
What's important is not only what to do but also how to do.
For Investors : not only : Asset class but also consider risk factor
not only : Diversification but also tail risk
not only : backward looking judgement but also forward looking judgement
For Business : navigate in the strucutural change
Most of action from business
1) Don't recognize the structural change
2) Recognize the change but do correctly.
The most likely outcome falls into between 1)and 2)
Recognize the structural change, do something but not rightly. We call it "Active Intertia"
Let me leave with
1. Data is unambiguous , we are in the midst of a major realignment both at the national and global level.
2. Well manage both Journey and Destination at the same time.
3. Fundamentally, change of distribution of outcome, and let clients to navigate through this uncertainty.
Q&A.
What would be the comment on Policy makers.
- Policy do something, but policy outcome far short of expectation.
- prediction of outcome : employement rate 10% is right after Massive fiscal and unconventional measure
These are happening because of MINDSET ISSUE
- Policy makers are dealing with this strucutrual change with cyclical tools.
- This is active inertia, doing something and but doing more of the same.
So, Policy approach has to be as much structural as it is cyclical.
Recognition : Policy makers should recognize the issue
Formulation : is this structural or cyclical
Disappointed with political outcome
- not only policy outcome, but also collateral damage.
- Economical and politics and interconnection and complexitiy
=>Be awere of UNINTENTED CONSEQUENCES
Politicians implement "Financial Reform" but nobody know what will it be
Regulation and Major society etc.
No comments:
Post a Comment